What's going on in Syria?
With Israel's recent bombing of Syria, does this open yet another front for the IDF — and could it further destabilise the Middle East?
Syrian government forces have withdrawn from parts of southern Sweida Province following recent clashes and airstrikes by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). President Ahmed al-Sharaa has cited the need to restore calm to the region as a key reason for the pullback. But what’s really happening beneath the surface?
Israeli Airstrikes Across Syria
Israel has launched strikes on multiple targets across Syria, including in the capital Damascus. The Syrian president has accused Israel of deliberately fuelling instability and “creating endless chaos” in the region.
So why has Israel ramped up its military activity in Syria — and what does it mean for the broader Middle East?
The Druze Minority and Strategic Influence
Israel’s actions are driven by multiple factors. A primary reason cited is the protection of the Druze minority, many of whom live in southern Sweida Province. In an apparent effort to prevent further Israeli attacks, Syrian forces have withdrawn from the area.
But protection isn’t the only motive.
Israel is also believed to be expanding its influence in southern Syria. This is not without precedent — the Druze community has longstanding cultural and historical ties with Israel, and around 20% of Druze in the region reportedly hold Israeli citizenship. From Israel’s perspective, protecting its kin and interests in Syria is a strategic imperative.
A Broader Power Play?
Israel already holds considerable influence in the Middle East, not least due to its close alliance with the United States. So why expand further?
Some analysts suggest it’s about deterrence. With Israel facing heightened threats from multiple fronts — including Gaza, Iran, and Hezbollah — a show of strength could be designed to discourage future attacks. But in doing so, Israel risks overreaching.
Could This Backfire?
Absolutely.
By pushing too far, Israel may inadvertently destabilise the region. Its neighbours could begin to see it as a growing threat, leading them to bolster their own military postures. This could spark a dangerous arms race — or worse, a full-blown regional conflict. A situation that might eventually draw in Western powers.
Where Does the US Stand?
That’s a tricky question.
The United States is Israel’s strongest ally, but it also maintains important ties with other regional powers, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In recent years, particularly under the Trump administration, relations with Syria have seen small gestures of goodwill, such as the lifting of certain tariffs.
For the US and many of its allies, this is shaping up to be a lose-lose situation. Openly siding with one party risks alienating others — a diplomatic risk Washington may be unwilling to take.
Final Thoughts
Israel’s actions may be rooted in strategic logic, but the consequences could be far-reaching. The region is on a knife edge, and one misstep could ignite a conflict with global implications.
Whether the US or its allies are prepared to step in — or whether they even should — remains to be seen.